Background

The objective of this study is to establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting the probability of silent cerebral infarction following ablation of atrial fibrillation.

Methods and Results

A retrospective observational study was conducted on the data of 238 patients with atrial fibrillation who underwent radiofrequency ablation in our hospital from October 2019 to December 2022. LASSO regression and multivariate logistics regression analysis were used to assess the independent risk factors for silent cerebral infarction after ablation. The AUC of the predictive model was 0.733 (95% CI, 0.649–0.816) and the internal validation (bootstrap = 1000) of the bootstrap method was 0.733 (95% CI 0.646–0.813). The Hosmer–Lemeshow test yields an insignificant p-value of X-squared = 10.212 and p-value = 0.2504, thus indicating an insignificant difference between predicted and observed values and good calibration results. The clinical impact curve (CIC) and clinical decision curve also prove that this graph is useful in the clinical setting.

Conclusion

We developed an easy-to-use nomogram model to predict the probability of silent cerebral infarction following radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation. This model can provide a valid assessment of the probability of postoperative silent cerebral infarction in patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation.

中文翻译：

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列线图模型的建立和验证以及消融心房颤动后无症状脑梗死的概率

 背景

本研究的目的是建立并验证列线图模型，用于预测房颤消融后无症状脑梗死的概率。

 方法和结果

对2019年10月至2022年12月在我院接受射频消融治疗的238例房颤患者资料进行回顾性观察研究，采用LASSO回归和多因素logistic回归分析评估消融后发生无症状性脑梗死的独立危险因素。 。预测模型的 AUC 为 0.733（95% CI，0.649–0.816），bootstrap 方法的内部验证（bootstrap = 1000）为 0.733（95% CI 0.646–0.813）。 Hosmer–Lemeshow 检验得出 X 平方 = 10.212 和 p 值 = 0.2504 的不显着 p 值，因此表明预测值和观测值之间的差异不显着，且校准结果良好。临床影响曲线（CIC）和临床决策曲线也证明该图在临床环境中是有用的。

 结论

我们开发了一种易于使用的列线图模型来预测房颤射频消融后发生无症状脑梗塞的概率。该模型可以有效评估房颤射频消融患者术后发生无症状脑梗死的概率。