Online social networks have revolutionized communication, providing individuals with platforms to express their personal opinions on diverse topics. Researchers have independently explored information propagation and opinion evolution within complex networks. However, these phenomena exhibit interconnectedness, where information dissemination influences opinion evolution and vice versa. To address challenges in complex network modeling and opinion-information coupling, internal and external factors are considered in public opinion scenarios by incorporating the crowd effect, enhancement effect, and evolutionary game theory. The susceptible-latent-forwarding-immune-Jager-Amblard (SLFI-JA) model is presented by modifying the SLFI propagation dynamics model and the JA opinion dynamics model, enabling the integration of information propagation and opinion evolution at the microlevel. Through analyzing real-world social hotspots on Sina Weibo, case studies and comparative analyses are conducted to validate the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model. Furthermore, the findings identify key factors influencing public opinion dissemination and group opinion evolution, offering valuable insights to relevant departments in public opinion response and management. The study aims to mitigate the harmful effects of negative public opinions, prevent extreme adverse online events, and foster a healthier online environment.

中文翻译：

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整合内外部影响的信息传播演化建模与分析

在线社交网络彻底改变了沟通方式，为个人提供了就不同主题表达个人观点的平台。研究人员独立探索了复杂网络中的信息传播和观点演变。然而，这些现象表现出相互关联性，信息传播影响观点演变，反之亦然。为了解决复杂网络建模和舆论信息耦合的挑战，结合群体效应、增强效应和进化博弈论，在舆情场景中考虑内部和外部因素。通过修改SLFI传播动力学模型和JA舆情动力学模型，提出了易感-潜在-转发-免疫-Jager-Amblard（SLFI-JA）模型，实现了微观层面上信息传播和舆情演化的融合。通过对新浪微博现实社会热点的分析，进行案例研究和比较分析，验证所提模型的合理性和有效性。此外，研究结果还揭示了影响舆情传播和群体舆情演变的关键因素，为相关部门的舆情应对和管理提供了宝贵的见解。该研究旨在减轻负面舆论的有害影响，防范极端不良网络事件，营造更健康的网络环境。