Climate change will shape the future of Russia, and vice versa, regardless of who rules in the Kremlin. The world's largest country is warming faster than Earth as a whole, occupies more than half the Arctic Ocean coastline, and is waging a carbon-intensive war while increasingly isolated from the international community and its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Officially, the Russian government argues that, as a major exporter of hydrocarbons, Russia benefits from maintaining global reliance on fossil fuels and from climate change itself, because warming may increase the extent and quality of its arable land, open a new year-round Arctic sea route, and make its harsh climate more livable. Drawing on the collective expertise of a large group of Russia-focused social scientists and a comprehensive literature review, we challenge this narrative. We find that Russia suffers from a variety of impacts due to climate change and is poorly prepared to adapt to these impacts. The literature review reveals that the fates of Russia's hydrocarbon-dependent economy, centralized political system, and climate-impacted population are intertwined and that research is needed on this evolving interrelationship, as global temperatures rise and the international economy decarbonizes in response.

中文翻译：

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气候变化中的俄罗斯

无论谁统治克里姆林宫，气候变化都将塑造俄罗斯的未来，反之亦然。这个世界上最大的国家的变暖速度比整个地球还要快，占据了北冰洋海岸线的一半以上，并且正在发动一场碳密集型战争，同时越来越孤立于国际社会及其减少温室气体排放的努力。俄罗斯政府官方认为，作为碳氢化合物的主要出口国，俄罗斯受益于全球对化石燃料的依赖以及气候变化本身，因为气候变暖可能会增加其耕地的面积和质量，开辟新的全年北极地区。海上航线，并使其恶劣的气候变得更加宜居。凭借一大批专注于俄罗斯的社会科学家的集体专业知识和全面的文献综述，我们对这种说法提出了挑战。我们发现，俄罗斯因气候变化而遭受多种影响，且适应这些影响的准备不足。文献综述表明，俄罗斯依赖碳氢化合物的经济、中央集权的政治制度和受气候影响的人口的命运是交织在一起的，随着全球气温上升和国际经济脱碳，需要对这种不断变化的相互关系进行研究。