This paper contributes to and extends our current understanding of information frictions in expectations. I first propose a new framework for estimating noisy information using individual forecasts. I further extend this framework to incorporate misperceptions on the part of economic agents about the persistence of the underlying process being forecasted. Applying this framework to the U.S. inflation, forecasts of professional forecasters suggest a systematic overestimation on the part of forecasters of the persistence of inflation in addition to the presence of noisy signals. Using a structural model that incorporates both noisy signals and misperceptions of persistence, I quantify the relative importance of each channel in accounting for the expectations formation process of these agents. The results indicate that, even for professional forecasters, there are multiple forces that generate economically significant deviations from full information.

中文翻译：

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预测者对美国通胀了解（和不了解）什么？

本文有助于并扩展了我们目前对期望中的信息摩擦的理解。我首先提出了一个使用个人预测来估计噪声信息的新框架。我进一步扩展了这个框架，以纳入经济主体对所预测的基本过程的持续性的误解。将这一框架应用于美国通胀，专业预测者的预测表明，除了存在噪声信号之外，预测者还系统性地高估了通胀的持续性。使用包含噪声信号和持久性误解的结构模型，我量化了每个通道在解释这些代理的期望形成过程中的相对重要性。结果表明，即使对于专业预测者来说，也有多种力量会导致与完整信息产生经济上的重大偏差。