Invasive plants can cause drastic changes in their new ecosystems, and these changes might depend also on future climatic conditions. Buffelgrass is an African C4 bunchgrass that has been introduced outside its native range for rangeland improvement and livestock feed. In the Caribbean region, it has been introduced to supplement managed pasturelands and can have an effect on the surviving native flora. To determine the potential range where these populations might be present in tropical dry forest biomes in the next decades, we ran species distribution models for the Puerto Rican bank. We found that buffelgrass will remain present in the tropical dry forest biome of the main island of Puerto Rico as well as nearby islands with equal or greater biodiversity refuges. With the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, more areas of Puerto Rico's coasts and nearby islands will become suitable habitat for this invasive grass. Those areas should be actively monitored for control and removal of this invasive grass.

中文翻译：

---

加勒比海地区未来存在的入侵草：对波多黎各 Cenchrus ciliaris L.（水牛草）的潜在分布进行建模

入侵植物可能会导致其新生态系统发生巨大变化，而这些变化也可能取决于未来的气候条件。水牛草是一种非洲 C4 束草，已被引入其原生范围之外，用于牧场改良和牲畜饲料。在加勒比地区，它被引入以补充管理的牧场，并可能对幸存的本土植物群产生影响。为了确定未来几十年这些种群可能出现在热带干燥森林生物群落中的潜在范围，我们为波多黎各银行运行了物种分布模型。我们发现，水牛草将继续存在于波多黎各主岛的热带干燥森林生物群落中，以及附近具有同等或更大生物多样性保护区的岛屿中。随着大气中温室气体的增加，波多黎各海岸和附近岛屿的更多地区将成为这种入侵草的合适栖息地。应积极监测这些区域，以控制和清除这种入侵草。