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Climate change in open environments: Revisiting the current distribution to understand and safeguard the future of psammophilous squamates of the Diagonal of Open Formations of South America
Journal of Arid Environments ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2023.105117
Júlia S. Oliveira , Diego J. Santana , Davi L. Pantoja , Karoline Ceron , Thaís B. Guedes

To identify regions that contribute to the persistence of biodiversity, we (1) predict the potential distribution of the psammophilous squamate species endemic of the Diagonal of Open Formations (DOF) in the current climate, (2) identify survey priority areas, (3) estimate the impacts of climate change in two future CO2 emission scenarios, and (4) discuss strategies to safeguard these target species. We created an occurrence database and used environmental variables for the current and future periods to run the potential distribution models. We obtained models with high performance for all species and scenarios. Our study indicates potential occurrence areas for the psammophilous squamates of the DOF that still need to be sampled and are a survey priority for future inventories. In all future projections, climate change is predicted to shift the suitability and promote species range change, modifying the richness patterns for the psammophilous squamate reptiles of DOF. Finally, we demonstrate that future climatic conditions may decrease the effectiveness of current areas in protecting the diversity of these reptiles. Our results highlight the vulnerability of psammophilous squamates from South American Dry Diagonal to climate change and provide crucial information of the need of dynamic public policies for conservation of these species.



中文翻译:

开放环境中的气候变化:重新审视当前的分布,以了解和保护南美洲开放地层对角线沙粒鳞状动物的未来

为了确定有助于生物多样性持久存在的区域,我们 (1) 预测开放地层对角线 (DOF) 特有的沙蜥鳞类物种在当前气候下的潜在分布,(2) 确定调查优先区域,(3)估计气候变化对未来两种CO 2排放情景的影响,以及(4) 讨论保护这些目标物种的策略。我们创建了一个发生数据库,并使用当前和未来时期的环境变量来运行潜在分布模型。我们获得了适用于所有物种和场景的高性能模型。我们的研究表明,DOF 的沙粒鳞状动物的潜在发生区域仍需要采样,并且是未来清单调查的优先事项。在所有未来的预测中,气候变化预计将改变物种的适宜性并促进物种范围的变化,从而改变 DOF 的沙蜥有鳞爬行动物的丰富度模式。最后,我们证明未来的气候条件可能会降低当前地区保护这些爬行动物多样性的有效性。我们的研究结果强调了南美干对角线的沙粒鳞状动物对气候变化的脆弱性,并提供了需要动态公共政策来保护这些物种的重要信息。

更新日期:2023-12-23
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