Understanding robust pathways to achieve affordable, reliable, and equitable energy transitions to a decarbonized society has received growing attention. While existing energy transition literature emphasizes the role of government policy and technological innovation, little has been written to integrate “top-down” approaches encompassing government policy and “bottom-up” individual enterprise-level decisions. Therefore, here we develop a hybrid top-down, bottom-up production consumption model towards intra-national energy transition planning using a decentralized agent-based approach, including a detailed geographic coverage utilizing GIS to map individual energy units. This enables considering SC-level dynamics of end-users pursuing economic objectives subject to regulatory constraints. Two different case studies are reported. The first study reveals that green hydrogen consumption in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu may grow only up to 3% by 2042 from the current nil usage, even with aggressive technological cost reductions and a fixed carbon price of $20/ton CO₂, but demand could grow more rapidly if stringent criteria pollutant emissions limits are imposed. In the second case study, which considers natural gas usage across India, the power and city gas sectors are found to be the consistent demand drivers, with their share rising from ∼40% of the total in 2022 to ∼60% by 2032. This is consistent with IEA and IRENA projections. The proposed agent-based model thus provides multiple benefits: It enables the identification of key sectors driving the energy transition; it helps analyze critical factors like resource availability, supply chain infrastructure, and economics; and it can be used to develop decision support tools to investigate clean energy policies.

了解实现可负担、可靠和公平的能源转型以实现脱碳社会的稳健途径已受到越来越多的关注。虽然现有的能源转型文献强调政府政策和技术创新的作用，但很少有文章将涵盖政府政策和“自下而上”的单个企业决策的“自上而下”方法整合起来。因此，在这里，我们使用基于分散代理的方法开发了一种自上而下、自下而上的混合生产消费模型，以实现国家内部能源转型规划，包括利用 GIS 绘制各个能源单位的详细地理覆盖范围。这使得能够考虑最终用户在监管约束下追求经济目标的供应链层面的动态。报告了两个不同的案例研究。第一项研究表明，即使积极降低技术成本并将碳价定为 20 美元/吨 CO ₂ ，​​到 2042 年，印度泰米尔纳德邦的绿色氢消耗量可能仅比目前的零使用量增长 3%，但需求如果实行严格的污染物排放限制标准，可能会增长得更快。在第二个案例研究中，考虑了印度各地的天然气使用情况，发现电力和城市燃气行业是持续的需求驱动因素，其份额从 2022 年占总量的 40% 上升到 2032 年的 60%。与 IEA 和 IRENA 的预测一致。因此，所提出的基于代理的模型具有多种好处：它能够识别推动能源转型的关键部门；它有助于分析资源可用性、供应链基础设施和经济等关键因素；它可用于开发决策支持工具来调查清洁能源政策。