Abstract

Taking advantage of the 2019/2020 Mozambican household budget survey, in the field both before and during the first phases of the Covid-19 pandemic, we assess the impact of Covid-19 on welfare in 2020, aiming to disentangle this impact from the effect of other shocks. Comparing a number of welfare metrics, and applying propensity score matching and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment approaches, we find that consumption levels are significantly lower and poverty rates substantially higher during the first phases of Covid-19 than in the pre-Covid-19 period. Moreover, the impact was greater in urban areas and accordingly in the more urbanised southern region. Non-food expenditures suffered relatively more than food expenditures, likely a coping strategy, while the impact on consumption levels was greater for people working in the secondary and tertiary sectors than for workers in the primary sector, mainly agriculture. Stunting among under-5 children also suffered. Only a limited number of countries have actual, collected in-person, survey data that span across the initial phases of the Covid-19 pandemic. Thus, the present analysis adds value to our understanding of the welfare consequences of Covid-19 in a low-income context, where automatic social safety nets were not in place during the early phases of the pandemic. More specifically, it helps in assessing the results of previous welfare impact simulations, compared to real data. Even though our main findings are broadly in line with existing estimates based on simulations or phone surveys, important differences between the predictions and the actual results emerge. We conclude that it is critically important for Mozambique and its development partners to develop stronger and more targeted policies and tools to respond to temporary shocks.

中文翻译：

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评估 2020 年 Covid-19 对莫桑比克的影响

摘要

利用2019/2020年莫桑比克家庭预算调查，在Covid-19大流行之前和第一阶段期间，我们评估了Covid-19对2020年福利的影响，旨在区分这种影响和影响其他冲击。比较多项福利指标，并应用倾向得分匹配和逆概率加权回归调整方法，我们发现，与 Covid-19 之前的时期相比，Covid-19 第一阶段的消费水平显着降低，贫困率显着升高。此外，城市地区以及城市化程度较高的南部地区受到的影响更大。非食品支出比食品支出受到的影响相对更大，这可能是一种应对策略，而对第二和第三部门工作人员的消费水平的影响比第一部门（主要是农业）的工人更大。5 岁以下儿童发育迟缓也受到影响。只有少数国家拥有跨越 Covid-19 大流行初始阶段的实际、亲自收集的调查数据。因此，本分析增加了我们对 Covid-19 在低收入背景下福利后果的理解，因为在大流行的早期阶段，自动社会安全网尚未到位。更具体地说，它有助于与真实数据相比评估先前福利影响模拟的结果。尽管我们的主要发现与基于模拟或电话调查的现有估计大致一致，但预测与实际结果之间仍存在重大差异。我们的结论是，莫桑比克及其发展伙伴制定更强有力、更有针对性的政策和工具来应对暂时的冲击至关重要。