Purpose

The present article aims to estimate an autoregressive vector model covering the period of 1990–2021 to analyze the effect of public spending and monetary supply increases in economic activity in Morocco.

Design/methodology/approach

A literature review on the policy of recovery with fiscal and monetary tools and its theoretical foundations was established. Then, an empirical study on the Moroccan context was executed to study the effectiveness of these instruments in Morocco from 1990 to 2021, using autoregressive vector modeling.

Findings

The results present a state of a positive relationship and statistical significance of public spending, money supply and economic growth. The impulse response function analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition showed that public spending does not have a large impact on gross domestic product, while the money supply has a real power to stimulate the growth of economic activity in Morocco.

Originality/value

This study aims to demonstrate the positive effect of the coordination of public spending and monetary supply increases on gross domestic product in Morocco. Additionally, the analysis using vector autoregressive modeling, impulse response functions, variance decomposition techniques and causality tests, provides crucial insights to guide researchers, practitioners and policymakers in developing more effective and resilient economic strategies. The findings from this study not only illuminate immediate recovery strategies but also contribute to strengthening the resilience of economies against potential future shocks.

中文翻译：

---

摩洛哥通过货币供应和公共支出实现经济复苏：实证调查

目的

本文旨在估计 1990 年至 2021 年期间的自回归向量模型，以分析公共支出和货币供应增加对摩洛哥经济活动的影响。

设计/方法论/途径

对财政和货币工具的复苏政策及其理论基础进行了文献综述。然后，使用自回归向量模型对摩洛哥背景进行了实证研究，以研究 1990 年至 2021 年这些工具在摩洛哥的有效性。

发现

结果呈现出公共支出、货币供应量和经济增长之间呈正相关且具有统计显着性的状态。脉冲响应函数分析和预测误差方差分解表明，公共支出对国内生产总值的影响并不大，而货币供应量却具有刺激摩洛哥经济活动增长的实际动力。

原创性/价值

本研究旨在证明公共支出和货币供应增加的协调对摩洛哥国内生产总值的积极影响。此外，使用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解技术和因果关系检验进行的分析，为指导研究人员、从业者和政策制定者制定更有效和更有弹性的经济战略提供了重要的见解。这项研究的结果不仅阐明了当前的复苏战略，而且有助于增强经济体抵御未来潜在冲击的能力。