Purpose

The purpose of this study is to address why managers enter the excessive market. A comparison of the facts and perceptions of entrants relative to success in the market shows that many entrants are confident about the viability of their businesses and enter the market. Accordingly, the authors simulate market entry decisions to detect behavioral biases.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors adapted the entry decisions simulation method, which is supported by the theoretical foundations of signal detection theory (SDT) and signaling theory. The simulation model is implemented on the Anaconda platform and written in Python 3.

Findings

The results of this study suggest that overestimation relates to excess market entry. Also, the proportion of excess entry under difficult conditions is always higher than under easy conditions.

Practical implications

This research helps managers and firms think about their and their competitors' abilities and evaluate them before entering the market. Policymakers and practitioners can also design programs such as experiential learning to help entrants assess their skills.

Originality/value

So far, no research has investigated the role of overconfidence under different market conditions. Accordingly, this study contributes to the current market entry literature by disentangling the debate between absolute and relative confidence and by considering the role of task difficulty.

中文翻译：

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揭开谜团：探索管理者对过度市场的吸引力并调查市场进入决策中的行为偏差

目的

本研究的目的是解决管理者进入过度市场的原因。对进入者相对于市场成功的事实和看法的比较表明，许多进入者对其业务的生存能力充满信心并进入市场。因此，作者模拟市场进入决策来检测行为偏差。

设计/方法论/途径

作者采用了进入决策模拟方法，该方法得到信号检测理论（SDT）和信号传递理论的理论基础支持。仿真模型在Anaconda平台上实现，并用Python 3编写。

发现

这项研究的结果表明，高估与过度市场进入有关。而且，困难条件下超额进入的比例总是高于条件宽松的情况。

实际影响

这项研究帮助管理者和公司思考自己和竞争对手的能力，并在进入市场之前对其进行评估。政策制定者和从业者还可以设计体验式学习等项目来帮助参与者评估他们的技能。

原创性/价值

到目前为止，还没有研究调查过度自信在不同市场条件下的作用。因此，本研究通过理清绝对信心和相对信心之间的争论并考虑任务难度的作用，为当前的市场进入文献做出了贡献。