This paper aims to add to the sparse research on patterns of traffic offending in young novice drivers by examining the trajectories of young Australian novices throughout the graduated driving licensing system (GDLS). Data on licensing, crashes and traffic offences for all persons aged under 25 years first licensed from July 2007 to June 2008 in New South Wales were supplied by transport authorities, with follow-up to January 2014. Eight hierarchical categories of offence were defined by seriousness. Total numbers of offences per month were plotted for one year after initial licensure while under supervision (L), after transitions to the first (P1) and second (P2) provisional licence phases and to unrestricted licensure (U). After excluding novices not transiting to P1, 75,470 novices (51.5 % male, 77.7 % 16 years old at L) remained. Of these 63,070 had a year of follow-up after P2 (52.5 % male, 82.3 % 16 years old at L) and 28,861 had a year of follow-up after U (55.5 % males, 91.7 % 16 years old at L), Offences were uncommon under at L but spiked after P1 and again after P2. Omitting GDLS offences there was a small increase after U. Patterns were broadly similar by age at L and time in L. Novices aged at least 18 years at L had the highest offence rates in the learner phase; those aged 17 years at L had the highest rates in P1 and P2. The longer novices spent in the supervised driving phase the lower their subsequent offence rates even allowing for age at P1. Urban or regional residence had little influence on offence rates but lower aggregate socio-economic status as measured by a census-derived index was associated with appreciably higher offence rates. Speeding was the most common offence type; dangerous/negligent driving was common immediately after P1, declining thereafter. These results are in broad agreement with previous research in noting the increase in offending as GDLS restrictions eased. They highlight the need for better understanding of the function of a GDLS in improving the safety of young drivers. They may also inform future enforcement and education policies for novice drivers. For example, rehabilitative interventions should occur coupled with enforcement soon after citation. Visible display of GDLS status would assist their identification.

本文旨在通过研究澳大利亚年轻新手在分级驾驶执照制度（GDLS）中的轨迹，为年轻新手司机交通违法模式的稀疏研究提供补充。新南威尔士州交通当局提供了 2007 年 7 月至 2008 年 6 月期间首次获得驾照的所有 25 岁以下人员的驾照、碰撞事故和交通违法行为数据，并提供了截至 2014 年 1 月的后续数据。按严重程度定义了八个违法行为等级类别。绘制了初始许可后一年内在监督下 (L)、过渡到第一 (P1) 和第二 (P2) 临时许可阶段以及过渡到无限制许可 (U) 后的一年内每月的犯罪总数。排除未过渡到 P1 的新手后，剩下 75,470 名新手（51.5% 为男性，77.7% 为 L 级 16 岁）。其中 63,070 人在 P2 后进行了一年随访（52.5% 男性，L 时 82.3% 16 岁），28,861 人在 U 后进行了一年随访（55.5% 男性，L 时 91.7% 16 岁），在 L 阶段进攻并不常见，但在 P1 后和 P2 后再次出现激增。忽略 GDLS 违规行为，U 后有小幅增加。L 年龄和 L 时间的模式大致相似。L 年龄至少 18 岁的新手在学习者阶段的违规率最高；L 中 17 岁的人在 P1 和 P2 中的比率最高。即使考虑到 P1 的年龄，新手在监督驾驶阶段花费的时间越长，他们随后的违规率就越低。城市或地区居住对犯罪率影响不大，但根据人口普查得出的指数衡量，较低的总体社会经济地位与明显较高的犯罪率相关。超速行驶是最常见的违法行为。P1 之后，危险/疏忽驾驶很常见，此后逐渐减少。这些结果与之前的研究大体一致，即随着 GDLS 限制的放宽，犯罪行为有所增加。他们强调需要更好地了解 GDLS 在提高年轻驾驶员安全方面的功能。他们还可能为新手司机提供未来的执法和教育政策。例如，康复干预措施应与传票后立即执行相结合。GDLS 状态的可见显示将有助于识别。