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Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty
Journal of International Money and Finance ( IF 2.762 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.103013
Maria-Eleni K. Agoraki , Haoran Wu , Tongbin Xu , Min Yang

We employ various indexes, namely the geopolitical risk (GPR) index, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and world uncertainty index (WUI), to comprehensively capture multiple dimensions of risk and uncertainty and investigate their influence on capital flows measured by different categories of mutual fund flows and IMF intercountry transaction flows. We find that GPR harms aggregate capital flows of both equity and bond funds, whereas rising EPU only significantly reduces the capital flows of equity funds. Additionally, WUI increases capital flowing into active bond funds, indicating a flight-to-safety effect. Besides, high GPR environments amplify the negative influence of EPU on capital flows of equity funds. Meanwhile, in more geopolitically stable conditions, bond markets may serve as a preferred shelter for navigating EPU. However, we find that the impacts of risk and uncertainty on transaction flows are marginal. Furthermore, we demonstrate that global risk or uncertainty (EPU and WUI) plays a more dominant role than country-specific ones in shaping capital flows. Therefore, this study offers novel insights into how different dimensions of risk and uncertainty can shape capital flows differently and whether the compounding effect of risk and uncertainty differs from that of a single risk or uncertainty.



中文翻译:

金钱永不眠:全球风险和不确定性下的资本流动

我们运用地缘政治风险(GPR)指数、经济政策不确定性(EPU)指数、世界不确定性指数(WUI)等多种指标,全面捕捉风险和不确定性的多个维度,并考察其对不同类别资本流动的影响。共同基金流动和国际货币基金组织国家间交易流动。我们发现,GPR 会损害股票型基金和债券型基金的总资本流,而 EPU 的上升只会显着减少股票型基金的资本流。此外,WUI 增加了流入主动债券基金的资本,表明存在避险效应。此外,高GPR环境放大了EPU对股权基金资金流向的负面影响。与此同时,在地缘政治更加稳定的情况下,债券市场可能成为欧洲货币联盟的首选避难所。然而,我们发现风险和不确定性对交易流量的影响很小。此外,我们还证明,全球风险或不确定性(EPU 和 WUI)在塑造资本流动方面比特定国家的风险或不确定性发挥着更主导的作用。因此,本研究提供了关于不同维度的风险和不确定性如何以不同方式影响资本流动以及风险和不确定性的复合效应是否不同于单一风险或不确定性的复合效应的新颖见解。

更新日期:2023-12-28
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