Emerging Market Economies struggle to balance monetary policy with capital flow management and commodity price volatility. Our study employs a New-Keynesian model, using Russian data from 2001 to 2019, to examine ‘Lean Against the Wind’ (LAW) monetary policies. We show that under Lean Against the Wind (LAW) policies, households with borrowed funds experience improved welfare, while households that save are adversely affected. While LAW increases output and inflation volatility, it also presents mixed financial stability outcomes—lowering debt volatility but heightening that for household delinquencies. These findings highlight the complex effects of LAW in economies subject to varied shocks.

新兴市场经济体努力平衡货币政策与资本流动管理和大宗商品价格波动。我们的研究采用新凯恩斯主义模型，使用 2001 年至 2019 年的俄罗斯数据来检验“逆风而行”（LAW）货币政策。我们表明，在“逆风而行”（LAW）政策下，借钱的家庭的福利得到改善，而储蓄的家庭则受到不利影响。虽然 LAW 增加了产出和通胀波动性，但它也带来了复杂的金融稳定结果——降低了债务波动性，但加剧了家庭拖欠率。这些发现凸显了 LAW 对遭受各种冲击的经济体的复杂影响。