Developed economies like the EU advocate imposing carbon tariffs on exports from countries lacking equivalent emission reduction measures, with energy-intensive sectors being the most susceptible. This study establishes five specific policy scenarios aligned with the potential criteria for carbon tariffs by developed economies. Utilizing the GTAP-E model, we quantitatively analyze the impact on energy-intensive sectors in major developing and developed economies. The results highlight the disadvantaged position of affected economies compared to the imposing ones. Lastly, the paper delves into effective strategies for relevant countries and outlines the transition pathways for energy-intensive sectors.

欧盟等发达经济体主张对缺乏同等减排措施的国家的出口征收碳关税，其中能源密集型行业最容易受到影响。本研究确立了与发达经济体碳关税潜在标准相一致的五种具体政策情景。利用 GTAP-E 模型，我们定量分析了对主要发展中经济体和发达经济体能源密集型行业的影响。结果突显了受影响经济体与强国相比处于不利地位。最后，本文深入探讨了相关国家的有效战略，并概述了能源密集型行业的转型路径。