This article models the process of structural transformation and catching-up in a demand-led Southern economy constrained by its balance of payments. Starting from the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model, we model a dual-sector small open economy with a traditional and a modern sector that interacts with a technologically advanced Northern economy. We propose two (alternative) autonomous elements that define the growth rate of this demand-led economy: government spending and exports. Drawing from the Structuralist literature, productivity in the technologically laggard Southern economy grows by absorbing technology from the Northern economy, by both embodied and disembodied spillovers, and potentially closing the technology gap. The gap affects the income elasticity of exports, bringing a supply-side mediation to the growth rates in line with the Balance of Payments Constrained Model. We observe that a demand-led government policy plays a central role in structural change, pushing the modern sector to a larger share of employment than what results under export-led growth. Such a demand policy is the only way in which partial catching up (in productivity and GDP per capita) can result, and this is facilitated by a global market place in which the balance of payments constraint is relatively soft.

中文翻译：

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双部门小型开放经济中的需求主导型工业化政策

本文模拟了受国际收支约束、以需求为主导的南方经济的结构转型和追赶过程。从斯拉夫超级乘数模型开始，我们模拟了一个双部门小型开放经济，其中传统部门和现代部门与技术先进的北方经济相互作用。我们提出了两个（替代的）自主要素来定义这种需求主导型经济的增长率：政府支出和出口。根据结构主义文献，技术落后的南方经济体的生产力通过吸收北方经济体的技术、通过有形和无形的溢出效应而增长，并有可能缩小技术差距。这一缺口影响出口的收入弹性，从而根据国际收支约束模型对增长率进行供给方调节。我们观察到，以需求为导向的政府政策在结构性变革中发挥着核心作用，推动现代部门的就业比例高于出口导向型增长。这种需求政策是实现部分追赶（生产率和人均国内生产总值）的唯一途径，而国际收支约束相对较弱的全球市场促进了这一点。