This paper exploits detailed offender-level data from the public prosecutor service to analyze whether a reform aimed at reducing recidivism was effective. The objective of this reform was to enhance deterrence by improving the certainty and celerity of punishment. More specifically, it (1) stimulated prosecutors to intensify the use of alternative dispositions (such as imposing settlements) in criminal cases that would otherwise have been dismissed, (2) reduced processing times by improving the collaboration between police and prosecutors, and (3) encouraged tailored decisions. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I exploit variation in when and where the district attorney reform was introduced to quantify its effect on recidivism rates. In doing so, I am able to compare otherwise similar individuals, who committed similar crimes, but who underwent different procedures. I further use an event study to assess the evolution of relative recidivism rates, and explore possible mechanisms including immediacy and certainty of punishment. The data reveal that after the reform, the prospects of recidivism linked to local crimes targeted by the reform decreased by 5 percentage points, a 26% reduction over the sample mean.

本文利用检察官部门提供的详细罪犯级别数据来分析旨在减少累犯的改革是否有效。此次改革的目的是通过提高惩罚的确定性和迅速性来增强威慑力。更具体地说，它 (1) 刺激检察官在本来会被驳回的刑事案件中加强使用替代性处置（例如强制和解），(2) 通过改善警察和检察官之间的合作来减少处理时间，以及 (3 ）鼓励量身定制的决策。我采用双重差分法，利用地区检察官改革何时何地引入的变化来量化其对累犯率的影响。通过这样做，我能够比较其他相似的个人，他们犯下类似的罪行，但经历了不同的程序。我进一步利用事件研究来评估相对累犯率的演变，并探索可能的机制，包括惩罚的即时性和确定性。数据显示，改革后，改革对象的地方犯罪再犯可能性下降了5个百分点，较样本均值下降了26%。