While there have been some studies of counterfactual analysis in history and other academic disciplines, there are very few studies in social policy and health policy. This paper explores a major critical juncture and counterfactual in the creation of the NHS. In particular, it explores the critical juncture of the discussion in the Labour Cabinet involving Bevan's proposal for nationalising the hospitals and Morrison's alternative proposal based on local government, and the counterfactual of Prime Minister Attlee summing up in favour of Morrison. It reviews the literature on the criteria for counterfactuals, and justifies the focus on the Cabinet Discussion, as this was a considered option which, with minimum change, might have led to significantly different outcomes. We consider how such an event could have come about, how credible that alternative was, and what its implications might have been.

中文翻译：

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这是一个很棒的 NHS 吗？英国国民医疗服务体系创建的反事实视角

虽然历史学和其他学科领域已有一些反事实分析的研究，但社会政策和卫生政策方面的研究却很少。本文探讨了 NHS 创建过程中的一个重要关键时刻和反事实。特别探讨了工党内阁讨论的关键时刻，涉及贝文的医院国有化提案和莫里森基于地方政府的替代提案，以及艾德礼总理总结支持莫里森的反事实。它回顾了有关反事实标准的文献，并证明了对内阁讨论的关注是合理的，因为这是一个经过深思熟虑的选择，只要进行最小的改变，就可能导致显着不同的结果。我们考虑这样的事件是如何发生的、替代方案的可信度以及它可能产生的影响。