Purpose

The agricultural supply chain is susceptible to disruptive geopolitical events. Therefore, agri-food firms must devise robust resilience strategies to hasten recovery and mitigate global food security effects. Hence, the central aim of this paper is to investigate how supply chains could leverage digital technologies to design resilience strategies to manage uncertainty stemming from the external environment disrupted by a geopolitical event. The context of the study is the African agri-food supply chain during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ strategic contingency and dynamic capabilities theory arguments to explore the scenario and conditions under which African agri-food firms could leverage digital technologies to formulate contingency strategies and devise mitigation countermeasures. Then, the authors used a multi-case-study analysis of 14 African firms of different sizes and tiers within three main agri-food sectors (i.e. livestock farming, food-crop and fisheries-aquaculture) to explore, interpret and present data and their findings.

Findings

Downstream firms (wholesalers and retailers) of the African agri-food supply chain are found to extensively use digital seizing and transforming capabilities to formulate worst-case assumptions amid geopolitical disruption, followed by proactive mitigation actions. These capabilities are mainly supported by advanced technologies such as blockchain and additive manufacturing. On the other hand, smaller upstream partners (SMEs, cooperatives and smallholders) are found to leverage less advanced technologies, such as mobile apps and cloud-based data analytics, to develop sensing capabilities necessary to formulate a “wait-and-see” strategy, allowing them to reduce perceptions of heightened supply chain uncertainty and take mainly reactive mitigation strategies. Finally, the authors integrate their findings into a conceptual framework that advances the research agenda on managing supply chain uncertainty in vulnerable areas.

Originality/value

This study is the first that sought to understand the contextual conditions (supply chain characteristics and firm characteristics) under which companies in the African agri-food supply chain could leverage digital technologies to manage uncertainty. The study advances contingency and dynamic capability theories by providing a new way of interacting in one specific context. In practice, this study assists managers in developing suitable strategies to manage uncertainty during geopolitical disruptions.

中文翻译：

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管理农业食品供应链不确定性并在复杂的地缘政治干扰期间建立供应链弹性的数字能力

目的

农业供应链很容易受到破坏性地缘政治事件的影响。因此，农业食品公司必须制定强有力的弹性战略，以加速复苏并减轻全球粮食安全影响。因此，本文的中心目的是研究供应链如何利用数字技术来设计弹性策略，以管理因地缘政治事件扰乱的外部环境而产生的不确定性。该研究的背景是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间的非洲农产品供应链。

设计/方法论/途径

作者运用战略应急和动态能力理论论证，探讨了非洲农产品企业可以利用数字技术制定应急战略并制定缓解对策的情景和条件。然后，作者对三个主要农业食品部门（即畜牧业、粮食作物和渔业-水产养殖业）内 14 家不同规模和级别的非洲公司进行了多案例研究分析，以探索、解释和呈现数据及其影响。发现。

发现

研究发现，非洲农产品供应链的下游企业（批发商和零售商）广泛使用数字化捕获和转换能力，在地缘政治混乱的情况下制定最坏情况的假设，然后采取积极的缓解行动。这些能力主要得到区块链、增材制造等先进技术的支持。另一方面，规模较小的上游合作伙伴（中小企业、合作社和小农）利用移动应用程序和基于云的数据分析等不太先进的技术来开发制定“观望”策略所需的传感能力，使他们能够减少对供应链不确定性加剧的看法，并主要采取反应性缓解策略。最后，作者将他们的发现整合到一个概念框架中，该框架推进了管理脆弱地区供应链不确定性的研究议程。

原创性/价值

这项研究首次试图了解非洲农产品供应链中的公司可以利用数字技术来管理不确定性的背景条件（供应链特征和公司特征）。该研究通过提供一种在特定背景下互动的新方式，推进了应急能力和动态能力理论。在实践中，这项研究帮助管理者制定适当的策略来管理地缘政治混乱期间的不确定性。