This paper investigates the causes and the consequences of the emergence of agriculture in the Middle East. Agriculture has emerged in many parts of the world since the end of the last Ice Age about 15 000 years ago. The paper first surveys the Palaeolithic Period to understand why agriculture did not emerge earlier. Then the paper considers the processes that led to the emergence of agriculture in the Middle East. The question is approached as a problem in economic history, and the archaeological record is understood in terms of changes in labour productivity, as measured by calories produced per hour of work, and in the size of the associated agricultural surplus (the difference between the calories produced by a food procurement system and the calories required to sustain the people trying to support themselves with that system). The shift from foraging to the cultivation of wild seeds and the later impact of the emergence of domestic seed and improvements in tool design are assessed in this framework. It is also used to analyse the impact of agriculture on human wellbeing, the origin of manufacturing (e.g. pottery), and the emergence of inequality, states, and warfare.

中文翻译：

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中东的新石器时代革命：《经济史评论》的调查和推测文章

本文调查了中东农业出现的原因和后果。自大约 15 000 年前最后一个冰河时代结束以来，世界许多地方都出现了农业。本文首先调查了旧石器时代，以了解为什么农业没有更早出现。然后本文探讨了中东农业兴起的过程。这个问题被视为经济史上的一个问题，考古记录是根据劳动生产率的变化来理解的，劳动生产率的变化是用每小时工作产生的卡路里来衡量的，以及相关农业剩余的规模（卡路里之间的差值）。食品采购系统生产的卡路里以及维持人们试图通过该系统养活自己所需的卡路里）。该框架评估了从觅食到种植野生种子的转变以及驯化种子出现的后期影响以及工具设计的改进。它还用于分析农业对人类福祉的影响、制造业（例如陶器）的起源以及不平等、国家和战争的出现。