The crises faced by welfare states have now endured for significantly longer than the counter-period of stability, calm and cooperation between the 1940s and 1970s. Systemic crisis of welfare states tied to the contradictions of capitalism, and the exogenous crises for the welfare state that have afflicted its expansion have, however, been met by faith in its resilience evidenced in its economic functions and popularity. We question the basis for optimism by examining the ‘state of the welfare state’ in the context of the social goals envisaged in the 1940s and the extent to which these are evidenced in contemporary social policy arrangements. We present a case for more ‘pessimism of the intellect’ in assessing welfare futures to better underpin welfare state scholars' tendency towards ‘optimism of the will’.

中文翻译：

---

福利国家的危机、韧性和智力的悲观主义

福利国家面临的危机现在持续的时间比 20 世纪 40 年代和 1970 年代稳定、平静和合作的时期要长得多。然而，与资本主义矛盾相关的福利国家的系统性危机，以及影响其扩张的福利国家的外生危机，都通过对其经济功能和受欢迎程度所体现的复原力的信心来应对。我们通过在 20 世纪 40 年代设想的社会目标的背景下审视“福利国家的状况”，以及这些目标在当代社会政策安排中得到体现的程度，来质疑乐观主义的基础。我们提出了一个在评估福利未来时更多“智力悲观主义”的案例，以更好地支持福利国家学者的“意志乐观主义”倾向。