Purpose

The purpose of this study is to propose a methodological approach for modeling catastrophic consequences caused by black swan events, based on complexity science, and framed on Feyerabend’s anarchistic theory of knowledge. An empirical application is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

Design/methodology/approach

Thom’s nonlinear differential equations of morphogenesis are used to develop a theoretical model of the impact of catastrophes on international business (IB). The model is then estimated using real-world data on the performance of multinational airlines during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Findings

The catastrophe model exhibits a remarkable capability to simultaneously capture complex linear and nonlinear relationships. Through empirical estimations and simulations, this approach enables the analysis of IB phenomena under normal conditions, as well as during black swan events.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the impact of black swan events in IB using a catastrophe model grounded in complexity theory. The proposed model successfully integrates the abrupt and profound effects of catastrophes on multinational corporations, offering a critical perspective on the theoretical and practical use of complexity science in IB.

中文翻译：

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启示录揭晓：国际商业中复杂性科学、灾难和黑天鹅事件的批判视角

目的

本研究的目的是基于复杂性科学并以费耶阿本德的无政府主义知识理论为框架，提出一种对黑天鹅事件造成的灾难性后果进行建模的方法。提出了一个实证应用来说明所提出的方法。

设计/方法论/途径

Thom 的形态发生的非线性微分方程用于开发灾难对国际商业 (IB) 影响的理论模型。然后使用跨国航空公司在 SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) 大流行期间表现的真实数据对该模型进行估算。

发现

突变模型表现出同时捕获复杂线性和非线性关系的卓越能力。通过经验估计和模拟，这种方法可以分析正常条件下以及黑天鹅事件期间的 IB 现象。

原创性/价值

据作者所知，这项研究是首次尝试使用基于复杂性理论的灾难模型来估计黑天鹅事件对 IB 的影响。所提出的模型成功地整合了灾难对跨国公司的突然而深远的影响，为 IB 复杂性科学的理论和实践应用提供了批判性的视角。