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Tree ring derived summer temperature variability over the past millennium in the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan
Frontiers of Earth Science ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2024-01-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s11707-022-1072-4
Fayaz Asad , Haifeng Zhu , Tabassum Yaseen , Ru Huang , Mukund Palat Rao

Long-term high resolution climate proxies are essential for understanding climate variability particularly, in regions such as the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan, where few long-term climate records are available. Using standard dendrochronological methods, an 1132-year (882 to 2013 C.E.) tree-ring chronology of Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb was established from the western Himalayas, northern Pakistan (WHNP). Tree growth was negatively and significantly (r = −0.65) correlated with the growing season (June–July) mean temperature, and positively and weakly (r = 0.22) associated with precipitation. This inverse relationship of tree radial growth with temperature and positive association with precipitation demonstrated that forest growth is sensitive to high temperature related drought. Utilizing a reliable STD chronology and robust reconstruction model, a 928-year (1086 to 2013 C.E.) mean temperature reconstruction was developed for the WHNP using the substantial negative correlation between the summer temperature and standard tree ring-width chronology. According to statistical validation, the reconstruction accounted for 41.6% of the climatic variation for the period of 1956–2013 C.E. instrumental period. Individual extreme-warm periods occurred in 1093 C.E. (29.42°C) and extreme cold periods in 1088 C.E. (26.99°C) observed during the past 928 years. The reconstruction’s multi-taper method (MTM) spectral analysis reveals significant (p < 0.05) 2–3-year and 63.8-year cycles. Since the 2–3-year cycle occurred within the range of ENSO variation, which indicates that ENSO had an impact on the regional temperature in our studied area.



中文翻译:

巴基斯坦北部喜马拉雅山西部地区过去一千年的树木年轮导致夏季气温变化

长期高分辨率气候代理对于了解气候变化至关重要,特别是在巴基斯坦北部喜马拉雅山西部等地区,这些地区几乎没有长期气候记录。使用标准树木年代学方法,建立了巴基斯坦北部喜马拉雅山西部 (WHNP)的Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb 1132 年(公元 882 年至 2013 年)树木年表。树木生长与生长季(6 月至 7 月)平均温度呈显着负相关( r = -0.65),与降水呈正相关且微弱相关( r = 0.22)。树木径向生长与温度呈负相关,与降水呈正相关,这表明森林生长对高温相关干旱敏感。利用可靠的 STD 年表和稳健的重建模型,利用夏季温度与标准树木年轮宽度年表之间的显着负相关性,为 WHNP 开发了 928 年(公元 1086 年至 2013 年)平均温度重建。经统计验证,重建解释了1956-2013年CE仪器周期气候变化的41.6%。在过去928年中观测到的个别极暖期发生在公元1093年(29.42°C),极端寒冷期发生在公元1088年(26.99°C)。重建的多锥法 (MTM) 谱分析揭示了显着的 ( p < 0.05) 2-3 年和 63.8 年周期。由于2~3年的周期发生在ENSO变化范围内,这表明ENSO对我们研究区的区域气温产生了影响。

更新日期:2024-01-14
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