This paper studies the effects of Covid-19 on manufacturing output, employment and productivity across a set of European countries. Using a quantitative firm dynamics model with endogenous entry and exit, key parameters of adjustment costs and market power are estimated to match country-specific responsiveness of firms to exogenous shocks. The estimated model is used to simulate the effects of the Covid-19 shock, with and without policy measures. As seen through counterfactual exercises, the main impact of the policy interventions, treated here as work-sharing schemes targeted to low profitability firms and “no-firing” obligations, was to mitigate the drop in aggregate employment by keeping firms in business. Depending on the country, we calculate that the aggregate drop in employment would have been between 1.0 and 1.9 percentage points higher without policy support. We do not find evidence of adverse productivity effects from these interventions. From these counterfactuals, we establish the importance of targeted subsidies and the sensitivity of employment responses to firm beliefs.

中文翻译：

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新冠疫情与欧洲的生产力：响应能力视角

本文研究了 Covid-19 对一些欧洲国家制造业产出、就业和生产力的影响。使用具有内生进入和退出的定量企业动态模型，估计调整成本和市场力量的关键参数，以匹配特定国家的企业对外生冲击的反应。估计模型用于模拟 Covid-19 冲击的影响，无论是否采取政策措施。通过反事实练习可以看出，政策干预措施（这里被视为针对低盈利企业的工作共享计划和“不解雇”义务）的主要影响是通过让企业继续营业来缓解总就业人数的下降。根据不同国家的情况，我们计算出，如果没有政策支持，就业总体下降幅度可能会高出 1.0 至 1.9 个百分点。我们没有发现这些干预措施对生产力产生不利影响的证据。根据这些反事实，我们确定了有针对性的补贴的重要性以及就业反应对坚定信念的敏感性。