COVID-19 drastically changed human mobility, including bike-sharing usage. Existing studies found positive impacts of COVID-19 on bike-sharing use. However, their analysis focused on the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study traces the effects of COVID-19 by including the bike-sharing data of the second and third years of the pandemic to provide more empirical evidence. We pre-defined short and long bike-sharing trips. Data collection and the effects of COVID-19 on both trips were separately addressed using public bike-sharing data in Seoul, South Korea. We conducted a time series and hot spot analysis to trace temporal and spatial bike-sharing usage changes. Our study applied a machine learning tool with Random Forest regression modeling to examine COVID-19 effects on two types of bike-sharing trips. Its impact is measured by looking at feature importance and calculating the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value. The amount of bike-sharing usage continued to grow during the pandemic, with long bike-sharing trips being more prominent. A significant increase in the number of short bike-sharing trips was observed in the second year. Both short and long trips showed growth in the third year, even with a high number of COVID-19 cases reported. There were no significant seasonal changes in the spatial concentration of both trips. COVID-19 and the vaccination response positively impacted bike-sharing use in Seoul, highlighting our resilience in adapting to changes in human mobility.

中文翻译：

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使用机器学习追踪 COVID-19 对短途和长途自行车共享出行的影响

COVID-19 极大地改变了人类的出行方式，包括自行车共享的使用。现有研究发现 COVID-19 对共享单车的使用产生积极影响。然而，他们的分析重点是 COVID-19 大流行的第一年。本研究通过纳入大流行第二年和第三年的共享单车数据来追踪 COVID-19 的影响，以提供更多的经验证据。我们预先定义了短途和长途自行车共享行程。使用韩国首尔的公共自行车共享数据分别处理了数据收集和 COVID-19 对两次出行的影响。我们进行了时间序列和热点分析，以追踪共享单车使用的时间和空间变化。我们的研究应用了带有随机森林回归模型的机器学习工具来检查 COVID-19 对两种类型的自行车共享出行的影响。其影响是通过查看特征重要性并计算 SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) 值来衡量的。疫情期间共享单车使用量持续增长，其中长途共享单车出行更为突出。第二年，短途共享单车出行数量显着增加。尽管报告的 COVID-19 病例数量较多，但短途旅行和长途旅行在第三年均出现增长。两次出行的空间集中度没有显着的季节性变化。COVID-19 和疫苗接种反应对首尔共享单车的使用产生了积极影响，凸显了我们适应人类流动性变化的能力。