Purpose

This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed-method case approach is applied. Explanatory variables are identified from the literature and explored in a qualitative analysis at an automotive original equipment manufacturer. Using logistic regression and random forest classification models, quantitative data (historical schedule transactions and internal data) enables the testing of the predictive difference of variables under various planning horizons and inaccuracy levels.

Findings

The effects on delivery schedule inaccuracies are contingent on a decoupling point, and a variable may have a combined amplifying (complexity generating) and stabilizing (complexity absorbing) moderating effect. Product complexity variables are significant regardless of the time horizon, and the item’s order life cycle is a significant variable with predictive differences that vary. Decoupling management is identified as a mechanism for generating complexity absorption capabilities contributing to delivery schedule accuracy.

Practical implications

The findings provide guidelines for exploring and finding patterns in specific variables to improve material delivery schedule inaccuracies and input into predictive forecasting models.

Originality/value

The findings contribute to explaining material delivery schedule variations, identifying potential root causes and moderators, empirically testing and validating effects and conceptualizing features that cause and moderate inaccuracies in relation to decoupling management and complexity theory literature?

中文翻译：

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供应链物料交付计划不准确的根本原因是什么？

目的

本研究旨在探索并实证测试影响物料交付计划不准确性的变量？

设计/方法论/途径

应用混合方法案例方法。解释变量是从文献中确定的，并在汽车原始设备制造商的定性分析中进行探索。使用逻辑回归和随机森林分类模型，定量数据（历史计划交易和内部数据）可以测试不同规划范围和不准确水平下变量的预测差异。

发现

对交付计划不准确性的影响取决于解耦点，并且变量可能具有组合的放大（复杂性生成）和稳定（复杂性吸收）调节效应。无论时间范围如何，产品复杂性变量都很重要，并且项目的订单生命周期是一个重要变量，其预测差异会有所不同。解耦管理被认为是一种产生复杂性吸收能力的机制，有助于交付计划的准确性。

实际影响

研究结果为探索和寻找特定变量的模式提供了指导，以改善物料交付计划的不准确性并输入到预测模型中。

原创性/价值

研究结果有助于解释材料交付计划的变化，确定潜在的根本原因和调节因素，实证测试和验证效果，并概念化导致和缓和与解耦管理和复杂性理论文献相关的不准确性的特征？