The international propagation of uncertainty shocks from the United States is not fully understood, despite extensive literature on domestic effects. This study examines the impact of U.S. financial, macroeconomic, and policy uncertainty on credit growth, stock prices, economic activity, bond yields, and inflation in five major recipients of U.S. foreign investment from 1950 to 2019. Findings highlight the pivotal role of U.S. financial uncertainty in driving global business cycles. Increased uncertainties in the U.S. financial sector negatively affect global economic activity by impeding credit and stock prices, limiting funding opportunities for firms and households worldwide. This underscores the significant influence of U.S. financial markets on global economic fluctuations.

尽管有大量关于国内影响的文献，但美国不确定性冲击的国际传播尚未得到充分了解。本研究探讨了 1950 年至 2019 年间美国金融、宏观经济和政策的不确定性对美国五个主要外国投资接受国的信贷增长、股票价格、经济活动、债券收益率和通货膨胀的影响。研究结果强调了美国金融的关键作用推动全球商业周期的不确定性。美国金融部门的不确定性增加，阻碍了信贷和股票价格，限制了全球企业和家庭的融资机会，从而对全球经济活动产生了负面影响。这凸显了美国金融市场对全球经济波动的重大影响。