Many meteorological centers have operationally implemented global model-based ensemble prediction systems (GEPSs), making tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from these systems available. The relatively low resolution of these GEPSs means that limits previous studies primarily focused on TC track forecasting. However, recent GEPS upgrades mean that TC intensity predictions from GEPSs are now also becoming of interest. This study focuses on the verification and comparison of the latest generation of GEPSs for TC intensity forecasts, particularly during the rapid intensification (RI) period over the western North Pacific (WP), eastern North Pacific (EP), and North Atlantic (NA) basins in 2021–2022. On average, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) GEPS performed best in predicting both TC intensity and RI across all three basins. Nevertheless, the exact timing of RI remains highly uncertain for these GEPS, indicating significant limitations in using GEPSs to forecast RI.

中文翻译：

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不同全球集合预报系统热带气旋强度预报的比较

许多气象中心已在运营中实施了基于模型的全球集合预报系统（GEPS），从而可以利用这些系统进行热带气旋（TC）预报。这些 GEPS 的分辨率相对较低，这意味着限制了以前主要集中在 TC 路径预测的研究。然而，最近的 GEPS 升级意味着 GEPS 的 TC 强度预测现在也变得令人感兴趣。本研究重点验证和比较最新一代 GEPS 的 TC 强度预报，特别是在西北太平洋 (WP)、北太平洋东部 (EP) 和北大西洋 (NA) 快速加强 (RI) 期间2021-2022 年盆地。平均而言，国家环境预报中心 (NCEP) GEPS 在预测所有三个流域的 TC 强度和 RI 方面表现最佳。然而，对于这些 GEPS，RI 的确切时间仍然高度不确定，这表明使用 GEPS 预测 RI 存在很大局限性。