We provide an overview of the formulation of the forecasts of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. We also provide statistical assessments of the performance of the forecasting process of those central banks. We find that the inflation forecasts have, by-and-large, been unbiased and efficient at the very short-term forecast horizon. The performance deteriorates over longer horizons. This latter finding could be attributable, inter alia, to the approach applied in the integration in the forecasting process of the assumptions on the future market-implied interest rate path.

中文翻译：

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对欧洲央行、美联储和英格兰银行通胀预测表现的评估

我们概述了欧洲央行、美联储和英格兰银行的预测制定。我们还对这些央行的预测过程的绩效进行统计评估。我们发现，总体而言，通胀预测在极短期的预测范围内是公正且有效的。随着时间的推移，性能会恶化。后一个发现可能主要归因于在未来市场隐含利率路径假设的预测过程中整合所采用的方法。