This research paper proposes a novel multi-model approach, integrating the CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM framework, to assess the combined impacts of climate change and land use change on the potential of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems. By considering both climatic variables and land use patterns, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how these factors influence CPV performance in the context of a changing environment. The proposed methodology offers valuable insights into the future viability and sustainability of CPV technology, enabling informed decision-making for policymakers, energy planners, and investors in the Middle East and Africa. As a result, the ability of the hybrid evolutionary CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM to predict the potential of CPV energy output for assessing the impacts of climate change on it was investigated in Alice Springs, the Middle East, and Africa. The outcome showed that the hybrid model significantly outperformed the other machine learning approaches. The fitted model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on CPV generation in Alice Springs, Australia, as well as the Middle East's and Africa's comparable climatic conditions. According to the study, climate change had the greatest impact on solar CPV energy production in Alice Springs, where it decreased the most by 8.577% under moderate forcing scenarios (SSP245) during the boreal summer season; moderately in the Middle East, where it decreased the mode by 2.316% under mitigation scenarios (SSP126) during the boreal summer season; and extremely minimally in Africa, where it decreased the mode by 1.263% under the far future sequencing period (2051–2099). Climate change also increased solar CPV energy production significantly in the Middle East in the far future sequencing period (2051–2099), as well as in Alice Springs, Australia, and Africa in the near future sequencing period (2015–2050). The strongest forcing scenario (SSP585) increased by 7.644% during the boreal autumn season in Africa; moderately increased by 6.502% during the boreal spring season in the Middle East; and had the least beneficial effects in Alice Springs, Australia, with increases of 5.538% during the boreal winter season. On an annual basis, all three regions showed a similar trend. Climate change (CLC) and urban expansion (URE) were also investigated in the Middle East and Africa for their effects on changes in solar CPV energy output. URE had a greater impact in Africa than the Middle East under the effective scenario, with a URE value of 45.45% for Africa and 20.15% for the Middle East, whereas CLC had a greater impact in the Middle East than Africa, with a CLC value of 29.01% compared to 5.47% for Africa. CLC and CPV residual factors, on the other hand, have a greater impact in the Middle East than in Africa, with effects of 29.01% and 50.83%, respectively, compared to 5.47% and 49.09%. The potential difference that drives the remediation of specific pollutants lies in the application of advanced technologies and sustainable practices. By exploring innovative solutions, such as using renewable energy sources like concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems, we can effectively mitigate the impacts of climate change and land use changes on pollutant concentrations. These technologies have the potential to significantly reduce pollution levels and create a cleaner and healthier environment for future generations. Assessing the CPV potential in different regions like Alice Springs, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa allows us to identify areas with high solar energy resources that can be harnessed for efficient pollutant remediation. Implementing prompt climate mitigation and adaptation measures is crucial for achieving a net-zero energy transition in the Middle East and Africa by 2050. In this context, prioritizing solar energy as the primary source of renewable energy is imperative for successful low-carbon economic planning in these regions.

本研究论文提出了一种新颖的多模型方法，集成了 CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM 框架，以评估气候变化和土地利用变化对聚光光伏（CPV）系统潜力的综合影响。通过考虑气候变量和土地利用模式，本研究旨在全面了解这些因素如何在不断变化的环境中影响 CPV 性能。拟议的方法为聚光光伏技术的未来可行性和可持续性提供了宝贵的见解，使中东和非洲的政策制定者、能源规划者和投资者能够做出明智的决策。因此，在爱丽丝泉、中东和非洲研究了混合进化 CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM 预测 CPV 能源输出潜力以评估气候变化对其影响的能力。结果表明，混合模型显着优于其他机器学习方法。拟合模型用于评估气候变化对澳大利亚爱丽丝泉以及中东和非洲的类似气候条件的 CPV 发电的潜在影响。研究表明，气候变化对爱丽丝泉太阳能聚光伏发电的影响最大，在北半球夏季，在中等强迫情景（SSP245）下，太阳能聚光伏发电下降最多，达8.577%；中东地区适度下降，在北半球夏季缓解情景（SSP126）下众数降低了 2.316%；在非洲，其影响极小，在遥远的未来测序期间（2051-2099），该模式降低了 1.263%。气候变化还显着增加了中东在遥远的未来序列期（2051-2099）以及爱丽斯泉、澳大利亚和非洲在不久的将来序列期（2015-2050）的太阳能聚光光伏发电产量。最强强迫情景（SSP585）在非洲北秋季增加了7.644%；北春季节小幅上涨 6.502%在中东；澳大利亚爱丽斯泉 (Alice Springs) 的有益影响最小，在北方冬季增加了 5.538%。从年度来看，这三个地区都呈现出相似的趋势。中东和非洲还调查了气候变化 (CLC) 和城市扩张 (URE) 对太阳能 CPV 能源输出变化的影响。有效情景下URE对非洲的影响大于中东，URE值对非洲为45.45%，对中东为20.15%，而CLC对中东的影响大于非洲，CLC值29.01%，而非洲为 5.47%。另一方面，CLC 和 CPV 剩余因素对中东的影响大于非洲，影响分别为 29.01% 和 50.83%，而非洲则为 5.47% 和 49.09%。推动特定污染物修复的潜在差异在于先进技术和可持续实践的应用。通过探索创新解决方案，例如使用聚光光伏（CPV）系统等可再生能源，我们可以有效减轻气候变化和土地利用变化对污染物浓度的影响。这些技术有潜力显着降低污染水平，为子孙后代创造一个更清洁、更健康的环境。通过评估爱丽斯泉、澳大利亚、中东和非洲等不同地区的 CPV 潜力，我们可以确定太阳能资源丰富的地区，可以利用这些地区进行有效的污染物修复。迅速实施气候减缓和适应措施对于到 2050 年实现中东和非洲的净零能源转型至关重要。在这种背景下，优先考虑将太阳能作为可再生能源的主要来源对于中东和非洲成功的低碳经济规划至关重要。这些地区。