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Revisiting International House Price Convergence Using House Price Level Data
Economic Systems ( IF 2.310 ) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101181
Christophe André , Christina Christou , Rangan Gupta

The literature on house price convergence largely relies on house price indices, based in an arbitrary year, rather than on actual price levels. This is essentially due to the scarcity of comparable house price level data. However, this severely constrains the analysis. In particular, it often forces to discard a large part of the data sample, which leads to a great loss of information and hampers analysis on sub-periods. In this paper, we combine the price level estimates produced by Bricongne et al. (2019) with long OECD house price series to analyse long-run house price convergence across 18 OECD countries. Applying the Phillips and Sul (2007) procedure, we find convergence in OECD nominal house prices, but two separate convergence clubs in real house prices. We find some convergence in euro area real house prices, but no evidence of strengthening after the introduction of the euro. β-convergence regressions (linking changes in house prices to their initial levels) point to conditional convergence, related to the evolution of gaps in real GDP per capita, long-term interest rates and population growth across countries.



中文翻译:

使用房价水平数据重新审视国际房价趋同

关于房价趋同的文献很大程度上依赖于任意年份的房价指数,而不是实际的价格水平。这主要是由于缺乏可比房价水平数据。然而,这严重限制了分析。特别是它往往会强制丢弃大部分数据样本,导致信息大量丢失,妨碍对子周期的分析。在本文中,我们结合了 Bricongne 等人的价格水平估计。(2019)利用长期经合组织房价序列来分析 18 个经合组织国家的长期房价趋同。应用Phillips和Sul(2007)程序,我们发现经合组织名义房价趋同,但实际房价存在两个独立的趋同俱乐部。我们发现欧元区实际房价有所收敛,但没有证据表明欧元推出后会走强。β-收敛回归(将房价变化与其初始水平联系起来)指向条件收敛,与各国实际人均 GDP、长期利率和人口增长差距的演变有关。

更新日期:2024-01-19
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