I construct a novel dataset to measure the geographic complexity of cross-border African banks and relate it to their default and earnings risk. The results suggest that having a higher degree of geographic complexity decreases risk. Further results show that the negative relationship between geographic complexity and risk is significantly channeled through changes in banks’ loan quality. Following the recent exit from Africa by major international banks, indigenous African banks could be encouraged to expand further across the continent to take advantage of available opportunities, in addition to diversifying their risk. The success of such expansions, however, may largely depend on effective credit management.

我构建了一个新颖的数据集来衡量非洲跨境银行的地理复杂性，并将其与违约和盈利风险联系起来。结果表明，地理复杂程度越高，风险就越低。进一步的结果表明，地理复杂性与风险之间的负相关关系通过银行贷款质量的变化而显着传导。随着主要国际银行最近退出非洲，除了分散风险外，还可以鼓励非洲本土银行在整个非洲大陆进一步扩张，以利用现有机会。然而，此类扩张的成功可能在很大程度上取决于有效的信贷管理。