The Middle East frontal sand and dust storms (SDS) occur in non-summer seasons, and represent an important phenomenon of this region’s climate. Among the mentioned type, spring SDS are the most common. Trend analysis was used in the current study to investigate the spatial-temporal variability of springtime dust events in the Middle East using synoptic station observation from 2011 to 2022. The plausible changes in some controlling factors of dust activity at selected important dust sources in the Middle East were also studied during this time period. Our results showed a statistically significant spike in springtime dust events across the Middle East, particularly in May 2022. To evaluate the relative importance of controlling factors, the applied feature of importance analysis using random forest (RF) showed the higher relative importance of topsoil layer wetness, surface soil temperature, and surface wind speed in dust activity over the Middle East between 2011 and 2022. Long-term trend analysis of topsoil moisture and temperature, using the Mann-Kendall trend test, showed a decrease in soil moisture and an increase in soil temperature in some selected important dust sources in the Middle East. Moreover, our predictions using ARIMA models showed a high tendency to dust activities in selected major dust origins (domain 2 and domain 5) with a statistically significant increase (p-value < 0.05) between 2023 and 2029. Observed spatial and temporal changes within SDS hotspots can act as the first step to build up for the first time an SDS precise intensity scale, as well as establishing an SDS early warning system in future.

中东锋面沙尘暴（SDS）发生在非夏季，是该地区气候的重要现象。其中，弹簧 SDS 是最常见的。本研究利用趋势分析，通过2011年至2022年的气象站观测来调查中东春季沙尘事件的时空变化。在中东选定的重要沙源中，沙尘活动的一些控制因素的合理变化这一时期也对东方进行了研究。我们的结果显示，中东地区春季沙尘事件在统计上显着激增，特别是在 2022 年 5 月。为了评估控制因素的相对重要性，使用随机森林 (RF) 进行重要性分析的应用特征显示，表土层的相对重要性较高2011 年至 2022 年间中东地区沙尘活动的湿度、表面土壤温度和表面风速。使用 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验对表土湿度和温度的长期趋势分析显示，土壤湿度下降，而上升中东一些选定的重要沙尘源的土壤温度。此外，我们使用 ARIMA 模型的预测显示，选定的主要粉尘来源（域 2 和域 5）的粉尘活动趋势较高，2023 年至 2029 年间呈统计显着增加（p值 < 0.05）。 观察到 SDS 内的空间和时间变化热点地区可以作为第一步，首次建立SDS精确强度等级，并在未来建立SDS预警系统。