Does the yield curve’s ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates and inflation are low, as was recently the case? We explore the issue using historical data going back to the 19th century for the US. This paper is similar in spirit to Ramey and Zubairy (2018), who look at the government spending multiplier in times of low interest rates. If anything, the yield curve tends to predict output growth better in low interest rate environments, though this result is stronger for RGDP than for IP.

中文翻译：

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低利率和收益率曲线的预测内容

当利率和通胀较低时，收益率曲线预测未来产出和衰退的能力是否会有所不同（就像最近的情况一样）？我们利用美国 19 世纪的历史数据来探讨这个问题。这篇论文在精神上与Ramey 和 Zubairy (2018)相似，他们研究了低利率时期的政府支出乘数。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是收益率曲线往往能在低利率环境下更好地预测产出增长，尽管这一结果对于 RGDP 而言比 IP 更强。