Using a new quarterly panel database on remittances, this paper investigates the elasticity of remittances to transaction costs using local projections. The findings suggest that cost reductions have a short-term positive impact on remittances within a quarter, before they stabilize at a higher level. According to our estimates, reducing transaction costs to the Sustainable Development Goal target of 3 percent could generate an additional US$32bn in remittances, higher than the direct cost savings from lower transaction costs, thus suggesting an absolute elasticity greater than one. The cost-elasticity exhibits some heterogeneity along several characteristics of the recipient country, notably competition in the remittance market, financial sector deepening, correspondent banking relationships, transparency in remittance costs, financial literacy and ICT development. Micro data from the USA-Mexico corridor confirm that migrants facing higher transaction costs tend to remit less, and that this effect is less pronounced for skilled migrants and those that have access to a bank account.

本文利用新的汇款季度面板数据库，利用当地预测研究了汇款对交易成本的弹性。调查结果表明，成本降低对汇款在一个季度内稳定在较高水平之前会产生短期积极影响。根据我们的估计，将交易成本降低至可持续发展目标的 3% 可以额外产生 320 亿美元的汇款，高于交易成本降低所节省的直接成本，因此表明绝对弹性大于 1。成本弹性根据收款国的几个特征表现出一定的异质性，特别是汇款市场的竞争、金融部门的深化、代理银行关系、汇款成本的透明度、金融知识和信息通信技术的发展。来自美国-墨西哥走廊的微观数据证实，面临较高交易成本的移民往往会减少汇款，而这种影响对于技术移民和拥有银行账户的移民来说不太明显。