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Cold winds in the north: Three perspectives on the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on security and international relations in the Arctic
Polar Science ( IF 1.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-01-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101050
Paal Sigurd Hilde , Fujio Ohnishi , Magnus Petersson

The article presents three perspectives on how Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has impacted international relations and security in the Arctic: a North European, a pan-Arctic and a Japanese-cum-North Pacific. We find a significant impact on the security situation in Northern Europe, including the European Arctic, notably in the Finish and Swedish decisions to join NATO. The consequences have been more limited from the circumpolar Arctic perspective, with the interruption of cooperation in the Arctic Council and in the international use of the Northern Sea Route as the most significant. Also from the Japanese perspective, the direct impact of the war has been more limited than in Northern Europe. Our analysis of Japan confirms, however, that both Arctic states and stakeholders seem to have adopted a wait and see approach to key issues, notably the future of the Arctic Council. The aim is likely to preserve the important gains made in Arctic governance in the last decades. How much reengagement with Russia will be politically palatable, and how long Russia's constructive approach to Arctic cooperation will last, remains to be seen, however. The winds in the north are cold, but like the climate, not as cold as one could expect.



中文翻译:

北方寒风:俄罗斯乌克兰战争对北极安全和国际关系影响的三个视角

文章从三个角度阐述了俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰对国际关系和北极安全的影响:北欧、泛北极和日本北太平洋。我们发现,这对北欧(包括欧洲北极地区)的安全局势产生了重大影响,特别是芬兰和瑞典加入北约的决定。从环极地北极的角度来看,其后果更为有限,其中最严重的是北极理事会合作的中断和北方航道国际使用的中断。同样从日本的角度来看,战争的直接影响比北欧更为有限。然而,我们对日本的分析证实,北极国家和利益相关者似乎对关键问题(尤其是北极理事会的未来)采取了观望态度。其目标可能是保留过去几十年北极治理取得的重要成果。然而,与俄罗斯重新接触在多大程度上在政治上是可接受的,以及俄罗斯对北极合作的建设性态度能持续多久,还有待观察。北方的风虽然冷,但和气候一样,并没有想象中的那么冷。

更新日期:2024-01-25
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