Debt levels, both private and public, were already at record highs before the Covid-19 pandemic and surged further in 2020. The high indebtedness raises concern that it will undermine future economic prospects. Contributing to the ongoing debate, we use the local projection method to dynamically study the behavior of economic activity and its main components after public and private debt surges. A new dataset on debt surges in 190 countries between 1970 and 2020 is used. Debt surges are followed by persistently weaker economic growth. However, this negative relationship does not always hold, as it depends on the type of debt surge: rapid increases in public debt have the most negative impact, particularly when an economy operates with a large positive output gap. Debt surges also tend to be followed by worse economic performance if the initial total debt levels are high. Public debt surges lead to weaker private and public investment. Surges in nonfinancial corporate debt are followed by lower private and public investment.

在 Covid-19 大流行之前，私人和公共债务水平就已创历史新高，并在 2020 年进一步飙升。高负债引发了人们的担忧，即这将损害未来的经济前景。为了促进正在进行的辩论，我们使用局部预测方法来动态研究公共和私人债务激增后经济活动及其主要组成部分的行为。使用了 1970 年至 2020 年间 190 个国家债务激增的新数据集。债务激增之后，经济增长持续疲弱。然而，这种负相关关系并不总是成立，因为它取决于债务激增的类型：公共债务的快速增加产生的负面影响最大，特别是当经济体以较大的正产出缺口运行时。如果最初的总债务水平很高，债务激增之后往往会出现更糟糕的经济表现。公共债务激增导致私人和公共投资疲软。非金融企业债务激增之后，私人和公共投资下降。