This study sketches how crypto speculators place their bets and investigates the impact of speculative behavior on cryptocurrency pricing. We conjecture that investors favor comparable alternatives to well-known, successful cryptocurrencies as compensation for missed get-rich-quick opportunities. Our verification begins with developing a composite lottery identification indicator that encapsulates the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies. Intriguing findings involve the following: A low price effect exists in the cryptocurrency market; small and illiquid cryptocurrencies no longer exhibit superior performance within the most speculative portfolios; investors’ lottery-like preferences are time-varying and differ across cryptocurrencies with different features. Collectively, these findings corroborate our conjecture from various angles.

这项研究概述了加密货币投机者如何下注，并调查了投机行为对加密货币定价的影响。我们推测，投资者青睐知名、成功的加密货币的类似替代品，作为对错失的快速致富机会的补偿。我们的验证从开发一个综合彩票识别指标开始，该指标封装了加密货币的独特特征。有趣的发现包括以下内容： 加密货币市场存在低价效应；小型且非流动性的加密货币在最具投机性的投资组合中不再表现出卓越的性能；投资者对彩票的偏好是随时间变化的，并且对于具有不同特征的加密货币也有所不同。总的来说，这些发现从各个角度证实了我们的猜想。