Using a panel of 86 advanced and emerging market economies over the period 1985–2020, we investigate the short-to-medium term effects of fiscal rules on primary balances. We examine various types of rules (expenditure, revenue, debt, and budget balance rules) and their strict and flexible characteristics. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules leads to a fiscal easing in the medium term, with the effects being more pronounced in emerging market versus advanced economies. We find an asymmetry in the workings of the fiscal rule over the business cycle. In times of expansion, the adoption of a rule leads to an a-cyclical or even procyclical response of the primary balance, while in times of recession fiscal rules induce a countercyclical impact response. Contrary to the baseline evidence, fiscal rules lead to a prudent fiscal policy response over the medium term when the debt ratio is high, the primary balance does not put the debt ratio on a declining path and the interest-growth rate differential is positive, as well as when the tax revenues generated by the tax system and tax administration are quite low relative to the stock of debt.

中文翻译：

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财政政策规则的中期影响

我们利用 1985 年至 2020 年期间 86 个发达和新兴市场经济体的样本，研究了财政规则对基本平衡的中短期影响。我们研究各种类型的规则（支出、收入、债务和预算平衡规则）及其严格和灵活的特征。我们发现，财政规则的采用会导致中期财政宽松，与发达经济体相比，新兴市场的影响更为明显。我们发现财政规则在商业周期中的运作存在不对称性。在扩张时期，规则的采用会导致基本平衡的非周期性甚至顺周期性反应，而在衰退时期，财政规则会引发反周期影响反应。与基线证据相反，当债务比率较高、基本余额不会使债务比率走上下降道路且利率增长率为正时，财政规则会在中期内导致审慎的财政政策反应，如下所示：当税收制度和税收管理产生的税收收入相对于债务存量而言相当低时。