In this study, we aimed to identify the risk factors for new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) after postcoronary intervention in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to establish a nomogram prediction model. The clinical data of 506 patients hospitalized for AMI from March 2020 to February 2023 were retrospectively collected, and the patients were randomized into a training cohort (70%; n = 354) and a validation cohort (30%; n = 152). Independent risk factors were determined using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariate logistic regression. Predictive nomogram modeling was performed using R software. Nomograms were evaluated based on discrimination, correction, and clinical efficacy using the C-statistic, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis, respectively. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that P-wave amplitude in lead V1, age, and infarct type were independent risk factors for NOAF, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training and validation sets was 0.760 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.674–0.846) and 0.732 (95% CI 0.580–0.883), respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted and observed values in both the training and validation sets, supporting that the actual predictive power was close to the ideal predictive power. P-wave amplitude in lead V1, age, and infarct type were independent risk factors for NOAF in patients with AMI after intervention. The nomogram model constructed in this study can be used to assess the risk of NOAF development and has some clinical application value.

中文翻译：

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基于V1导联P波幅度的急性心肌梗死后新发房颤预测模型的构建

在本研究中，我们的目的是确定急性心肌梗死（AMI）患者冠状动脉介入治疗后新发心房颤动（NOAF）的危险因素，并建立列线图预测模型。回顾性收集2020年3月至2023年2月期间因AMI住院的506例患者的临床资料，并将患者随机分为训练队列（70%；n = 354）和验证队列（30%；n = 152）。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子以及多元逻辑回归确定独立风险因素。使用 R 软件进行预测列线图建模。分别使用 C 统计量、校准图和决策曲线分析，根据辨别、校正和临床疗效来评估列线图。多因素logistic回归分析显示，V1导联P波振幅、年龄和梗死类型是NOAF的独立危险因素，训练集和验证集的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.760（95%置信区间[1]）。 CI] 0.674–0.846) 和 0.732 (95% CI 0.580–0.883)。校准曲线显示训练集和验证集中的预测值和观察值之间具有良好的一致性，支持实际预测能力接近理想预测能力。V1导联P波振幅、年龄、梗死类型是AMI患者干预后发生NOAF的独立危险因素。本研究构建的列线图模型可用于评估NOAF发生的风险，具有一定的临床应用价值。