We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic uncertainties. For example, we have improved the representation of multifault ruptures, both in terms of allowing more and less fault connectivity than in the previous models, and in sweeping over a broader range of viable models. An unprecedented level of diagnostic information has been provided for assessing the model, and the development was overseen by a 19‐member participatory review panel. Although we believe the new model embodies significant improvements and represents the best available science, we also discuss potential model limitations, including the applicability of logic tree branch weights with respect different types of hazard and risk metrics. Future improvements are also discussed, with deformation model enhancements being particularly worthy of pursuit, as well as better representation of sampling errors in the gridded seismicity components. We also plan to add time‐dependent components, and assess implications with a wider range of hazard and risk metrics.

中文翻译：

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USGS 2023 年美国连续地震破裂预测

我们提出了 2023 年美国地质调查局对美国本土的与时间无关的地震破裂预测，该预测对整个地区潜在破坏性地震的震级、位置和时间平均频率进行了权威估计。除了更新几乎所有模型组件之外，一个主要重点是提供认知不确定性的更好表示。例如，我们改进了多断层破裂的表示，无论是在允许比以前的模型更多和更少的断层连通性方面，还是在扫描更广泛的可行模型方面。为评估该模型提供了前所未有的诊断信息，并且该模型的开发由 19 名成员组成的参与式审查小组监督。尽管我们相信新模型体现了重大改进并代表了现有的最佳科学，但我们也讨论了潜在的模型局限性，包括逻辑树分支权重对于不同类型的危害和风险指标的适用性。还讨论了未来的改进，特别值得追求的变形模型增强，以及网格地震活动分量中采样误差的更好表示。我们还计划添加与时间相关的组件，并使用更广泛的危害和风险指标来评估影响。