A seismicity rate model (SRM) has been developed as part of the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model revision. The SRM consists of many component models, each of which falls into one of two classes: (1) inversion fault model (IFM); or (2) distributed seismicity model (DSM). Here we provide an overview of the SRM and a brief description of each of the component models. The upper plate IFM forecasts the occurrence rate for hundreds of thousands of potential ruptures derived from the New Zealand Community Fault Model version 1.0 and utilizing either geologic‐ or geodetic‐based fault‐slip rates. These ruptures are typically less than a couple of hundred kilometers long, but can exceed 1500 km and extend along most of the length of the country (albeit with very low probabilities of exceedance [PoE]). We have also applied the IFM method to the two subduction zones of New Zealand and forecast earthquake magnitudes of up to ∼Mw 9.4, again with very low PoE. The DSM combines a hybrid model developed using multiple datasets with a non‐Poisson uniform rate zone model for lower seismicity regions of New Zealand. Forecasts for 100 yr are derived that account for overdispersion of the rate variability when compared with Poisson. Finally, the epistemic uncertainty has been modeled via the range of models and parameters implemented in an SRM logic tree. Results are presented, which indicate the sensitivity of hazard results to the logic tree branches and that were used to reduce the overall complexity of the logic tree.

中文翻译：

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2022 年新西兰国家地震灾害模型的地震活动率模型

作为 2022 年新西兰国家地震灾害模型修订版的一部分，开发了地震活动率模型 (SRM)。SRM 由许多组件模型组成，每个组件模型分为以下两类之一：（1）反转故障模型（IFM）；或（2）分布式地震活动模型（DSM）。在这里，我们提供 SRM 的概述以及每个组件模型的简要描述。上板块 IFM 预测了源自新西兰社区断层模型 1.0 版并利用基于地质或大地测量的断层滑动率的数十万个潜在破裂的发生率。这些破裂的长度通常不到几百公里，但可能超过 1500 公里，并沿着该国的大部分长度延伸（尽管超出的可能性非常低 [PoE]）。我们还将 IFM 方法应用于新西兰的两个俯冲带，预测地震震级高达 ∼Mw 9.4，且 PoE 也非常低。DSM 将使用多个数据集开发的混合模型与新西兰地震活动较低地区的非泊松均匀速率区模型相结合。与泊松相比，得出了 100 年的预测，说明了速率变异性的过度分散。最后，通过 SRM 逻辑树中实现的模型和参数范围对认知不确定性进行了建模。给出的结果表明危险结果对逻辑树分支的敏感性，并用于降低逻辑树的整体复杂性。