Aerobic rice cultivation has been proposed as a water-saving option. Regional assessments are necessary to quantify its importance as such an option because aerobic rice exhibits varying effects on crop yield and irrigation water, depending on location, management, and cultivar. Currently, there is a lack of such regional assessments. In this study, we evaluated the potential of aerobic-direct-seeded rice cultivation as an alternative to the traditional flooded-transplanting system (FTS) in Golestan province, Iran. Using a bottom-up approach, rice production zones and buffers were identified, and the SSM-iCrop2 model was employed to simulate crop growth and water use for FTS and two aerobic systems in the entire province. The results revealed significant reductions in irrigation water volume for the aerobic systems, ranging from 22 to 50% compared to FTS. However, there was a trade-off in terms of crop yield, with reductions ranging from 9 to 31% in the aerobic systems. The variation was due to genotype × environment × management interactions on the performance of aerobic cultivation and emphasized the value of crop models in assessing and understanding these interactions. However, at the regional scale (Golestan province), it was found that transitioning from FTS to aerobic systems can effectively mitigate water over-withdrawal in the region, potentially saving 272–362 million m³ of water annually. This amount represents 70–90% of the current goal of reducing water withdrawal in the province. This study provides valuable insights into the water-saving potential of aerobic rice cultivation, with implications for sustainable water resource management in rice-producing regions of Iran.

需氧水稻种植已被提议作为一种节水选择。有必要进行区域评估来量化其作为这种选择的重要性，因为需氧水稻对作物产量和灌溉用水的影响各不相同，具体取决于位置、管理和品种。目前，缺乏此类区域评估。在这项研究中，我们评估了伊朗古勒斯坦省好氧直播水稻种植作为传统淹灌插秧系统 (FTS) 替代方案的潜力。采用自下而上的方法，确定了水稻生产区和缓冲区，并采用 SSM-iCrop2 模型来模拟全省 FTS 和两个好氧系统的作物生长和用水量。结果表明，与 FTS 相比，好氧系统的灌溉水量显着减少了 22% 至 50%。然而，在有氧系统中，作物产量下降了 9% 至 31%。这种变化是由于基因型×环境×管理的相互作用对有氧栽培性能的影响，并强调了作物模型在评估和理解这些相互作用方面的价值。然而，在区域尺度（古勒斯坦省），发现从FTS过渡到有氧系统可以有效缓解该地区的过度取水，每年可能节省272-3.62亿立方米^的水。这一数额占该省当前减少取水量目标的 70-90%。这项研究为有氧水稻种植的节水潜力提供了宝贵的见解，对伊朗水稻产区的可持续水资源管理具有重要意义。