Tropical cyclone (TC) projections with atmosphere-only models are associated with uncertainties due to their inability to represent TC-ocean interactions. However, global coupled models, which represent TC-ocean interactions, can produce basin-scale sea surface temperature biases in seasonal to centennial simulations that lead to challenges in representing TC activity. Therefore, focusing on recent individual major hurricane events, we investigated the influence of TC-ocean coupling on the response of TCs to anthropogenic change using atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean regional model simulations. Under an extremely warm scenario, coupling does not influence the signs of projected TC rainfall and intensity responses. Coupling, however, does influence the magnitude of projected intensity and especially rainfall. Within a 500 km radius region of the TCs, the projected rainfall increases in coupled simulations are 3–47 % less than in the atmosphere-only simulations, driven by enhanced TC-induced sea surface temperature cooling in the former. However, the influence of coupling on the magnitude of projected rainfall could vary considerably over the regions of highest rainfall generated by TCs.

仅大气模型的热带气旋 (TC) 预测由于无法代表 TC-海洋相互作用而存在不确定性。然而，代表热带气旋与海洋相互作用的全球耦合模型可能会在季节性至百年模拟中产生盆地规模的海面温度偏差，从而给代表热带气旋活动带来挑战。因此，针对近期的个别重大飓风事件，我们利用纯大气和大气-海洋耦合区域模式模拟研究了热带气旋-海洋耦合对热带气旋对人为变化响应的影响。在极端温暖的情况下，耦合不会影响预计的TC降雨和强度响应的迹象。然而，耦合确实会影响预计强度的大小，尤其是降雨量。在热带气旋 500 公里半径区域内，耦合模拟中预计的降雨量增幅比纯大气模拟中减少 3% 至 47%，这是由热带气旋引起的海面温度冷却增强所驱动的。然而，在热带气旋产生的最高降雨量地区，耦合对预计降雨量的影响可能存在很大差异。