This study presents evidence of global and regional comovements in public debt and examines their trends and features. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters based on the debt-to-GDP ratio of 115 countries. We find the global factor accounts for 38 percent of the total variation in the debt ratio worldwide, but its share decreases over time. Countries with more financial openness and a greater share of external public debt are more exposed to global/regional comovements. The assertion that international financial integration encourages higher government borrowing applies primarily to high-income countries and it does not hold globally.

中文翻译：

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公共债务的国际联动

本研究提供了公共债务全球和区域联动的证据，并探讨了其趋势和特征。我们根据 115 个国家的债务与 GDP 的比率，采用具有时变参数的贝叶斯动态因子模型。我们发现全球因素占全球债务比率总变化的 38%，但其比重随着时间的推移而下降。金融开放程度更高、外债比重更大的国家更容易受到全球/区域联动的影响。国际金融一体化鼓励增加政府借贷的说法主要适用于高收入国家，但在全球范围内并不成立。