This paper examines the impact of US monetary policy tightening on emerging markets, distinguishing between direct and indirect spillover effects using the global vector autoregression with stochastic volatility covering 32 countries. The paper shows that an increase in the US interest rate significantly reduces output for emerging markets, leading to larger, more prolonged, and persistent declines. Such an impact is further intensified by global trade integration, causing a sharper yet slightly quicker rebounding output drop. The spillover effects are significantly amplified when US monetary policy tightening is accompanied by an increase in monetary policy uncertainty. Finally, emerging markets exhibit considerable heterogeneity in their responses to US monetary policy shocks.

中文翻译：

---

不确定性下美国货币政策对新兴市场的溢出效应

本文研究了美国货币政策紧缩对新兴市场的影响，利用覆盖 32 个国家的随机波动性全球向量自回归来区分直接和间接溢出效应。论文显示，美国加息显着减少了新兴市场的产出，导致更大规模、更持久和持续的下降。全球贸易一体化进一步加剧了这种影响，导致产出下降幅度更大但稍快一些。当美国货币政策紧缩伴随着货币政策不确定性增加时，溢出效应会显着放大。最后，新兴市场对美国货币政策冲击的反应表现出相当大的异质性。