The global shifts in population age distribution brings about both challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, demographic transitions present an opportunity for sustained economic growth. However, it also poses challenges in meeting future consumption requirements. In this paper, we performed an index decomposition analysis linked with an economic-demographic model to trace how population age structure change may affect household electricity demand with the Philippines as a specific case study. Our results show that population ageing has a direct, significant, and persistent effect on residential electricity demand growth. In economies like the Philippines where the elderly consumes more electricity per person relative to younger cohorts, population ageing is expected to raise aggregate electricity demand through sheer compositional accounting effect. But even in economies where average electricity consumption is flat or declining in age, demographic dividends are projected to raise aggregate electricity consumption by expanding electricity access and increasing usage intensity across all age groups through a positive income effect. The permanence and irreversibility of population ageing, and the persistence of economic growth from demographic change may drive continuing growth in the energy sector.

中文翻译：

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菲律宾人口转型过程中的住宅用电量

全球人口年龄分布的变化既带来挑战，也带来机遇。一方面，人口结构转变为经济持续增长提供了机遇。然而，这也给满足未来消费需求带来了挑战。在本文中，我们以菲律宾为例，进行了与经济人口模型相联系的指数分解分析，以追踪人口年龄结构变化如何影响家庭电力需求。我们的研究结果表明，人口老龄化对居民电力需求增长具有直接、显着且持久的影响。在像菲律宾这样的经济体中，老年人的人均用电量高于年轻人，人口老龄化预计将通过纯粹的综合核算效应增加总电力需求。但即使在平均用电量持平或年龄下降的经济体中，人口红利预计也会通过扩大电力供应和通过积极的收入效应提高所有年龄段的使用强度来提高总用电量。人口老龄化的持久性和不可逆转性，以及人口变化带来的经济增长的持续性，可能会推动能源行业的持续增长。