In theory, tariffs should be partially offset by a currency appreciation in the tariff-imposing country or by a depreciation in the country on which the tariff is imposed. We find, based on a calibrated model, that the tariffs imposed in the 2018-19 US-China tariff war should not have had a large impact on the dollar but may have significantly depreciated the renminbi. This prediction is consistent with a high-frequency event analysis looking at the impact of tariff-related news on the dollar and the renminbi. We find that tariff news explained at most one fifth of the dollar effective appreciation but around two thirds of the renminbi effective depreciation observed in 2018-19.

中文翻译：

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关税在多大程度上被汇率抵消？

理论上，关税应该被征收关税国家的货币升值或被征收关税国家的货币贬值所部分抵消。我们发现，根据校准模型，2018-19年中美关税战中征收的关税本应不会对美元产生太大影响，但可能会导致人民币大幅贬值。这一预测与关税相关消息对美元和人民币影响的高频事件分析一致。我们发现，关税消息最多解释了 2018-19 年观察到的美元有效升值的五分之一，但约三分之二的人民币有效贬值。