Permafrost thaw induces terrain instabilities and hazards that severely threaten the integrity of roads and, by extension, the socio-economic development of Arctic communities. The research aimed at identifying paved road sections currently susceptible to permafrost thaw settlements and their damages, in Ilulissat, West Greenland. To this end, we developed and implemented a Thaw Settlement Susceptibility Index (TSSI) and a mapping framework relying upon the qualitative assessment of hazard sources, infrastructure vulnerability, and impacts of permafrost-induced failures. Our evaluation was principally based on the combination of geotechnical data (including 1127 digitized borehole logs and a high-resolution inventory of road conditions) with remotely sensed ground surface displacement maps. We found that 39% of the roads assessed in Ilulissat were established on highly hazardous terrains, characterized by the presence of fine-grained frost-susceptible sediments, severe water ponding, and/or snow ploughing accumulations. Respectively 9 and 3% of the road network were evaluated as vulnerable to thaw settlements and severely impacted. Overall, we showed that 12% of paved roads established on sediments were highly susceptible to permafrost thaw settlements and may consequently require greater resources to be maintained. Our study illustrated the potential of hazard and susceptibility maps, produced at the community scale, to support infrastructure risk management and optimization of local resources. Future work will be dedicated to assessing the susceptibility of existing roads and unbuilt terrains to permafrost thaw settlements under projected climate scenarios.

中文翻译：

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永久冻土道路解冻沉降敏感性测绘 - 建设北极具有气候适应性和成本效益的基础设施

永久冻土融化会导致地形不稳定和危险，严重威胁道路的完整性，进而威胁北极社区的社会经济发展。该研究旨在确定西格陵兰伊卢利萨特目前易受永久冻土融化沉降及其损害的铺设路段。为此，我们开发并实施了解冻沉降敏感性指数（TSSI）和绘图框架，依赖于对灾害源、基础设施脆弱性和永久冻土引起的故障影响的定性评估。我们的评估主要基于岩土数据（包括 1127 个数字化钻孔日志和高分辨率路况清单）与遥感地表位移图的结合。我们发现，伊卢利萨特 39% 的评估道路建在高度危险的地形上，其特点是存在细粒易受霜冻影响的沉积物、严重的积水和/或除雪堆积物。分别有 9% 和 3% 的道路网被评估为容易受到解冻沉降影响并受到严重影响。总体而言，我们发现，12% 的铺设在沉积物上的道路极易受到永久冻土融化沉降的影响，因此可能需要更多的资源来维护。我们的研究说明了在社区范围内制作的灾害和易感性地图在支持基础设施风险管理和当地资源优化方面的潜力。未来的工作将致力于评估现有道路和未建成地形在预测气候情景下对永久冻土融化定居点的敏感性。