The highly integrated underground utility tunnel (UUT) is a kind of critical infrastructure for process clusters and cities. However, this integration inevitably entails potential risks, including gas leakage, explosions, cable fires, and the accumulation of toxic gases within sewage pipes, and the concern regarding cable fires supersedes others due to their multifactorial correlations and severe consequences. Especially in utility tunnels within chemical industrial parks, cable fires can precipitate the shutdown of equipment, potentially culminating in grave incidents such as chemical leaks or uncontrolled reactions, owing to failures in control systems. This paper presents a novel dynamic risk assessment model for cable compartment fire in UUTs, integrating the Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN), Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS). By employing sensitivity analysis and vulnerability path analysis techniques within the FBN framework, critical hazards associated with cable compartment fires are identified. Subsequently, a comprehensive FDS analysis is conducted for a standardized UUT cable compartment fire consequence, considering the chain response of the safety barriers. The obtained results reveal that even with normal safety barrier response, the risk in the early stage of a fire cannot be disregarded. Notably, among various safety barrier failure scenarios, the failure of a single fire door has the lowest integrated risk, while sensor failure may lead to a higher peak of integrated risk, as well as a higher average integrated risk due to sprinkler failure. The results indicate that the proposed model can offer practical supports in accident mitigation, risk management, and safety barrier optimization of cable compartments in UUTs.

中文翻译：

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集成FBN和FDS对综合管廊电缆火灾进行定量风险评估

高度集成的地下综合管廊（UUT）是流程集群和城市的关键基础设施。然而，这种一体化不可避免地带来了潜在的风险，包括气体泄漏、爆炸、电缆火灾、污水管道内有毒气体积聚等，而电缆火灾由于其多因素相关性和严重后果而备受关注。特别是在化学工业园区内的综合管廊中，电缆火灾可能会导致设备关闭，最终可能因控制系统故障而导致化学品泄漏或失控反应等严重事故。本文提出了一种新颖的 UUT 电缆室火灾动态风险评估模型，集成了模糊贝叶斯网络（FBN）和火灾动态模拟器（FDS）。通过在 FBN 框架内采用敏感性分析和脆弱性路径分析技术，可以识别与电缆室火灾相关的严重危险。随后，考虑安全屏障的链响应，对标准化 UUT 电缆室火灾后果进行全面的 FDS 分析。所得结果表明，即使安全屏障反应正常，火灾早期的风险也不容忽视。值得注意的是，在各种安全屏障故障场景中，单个防火门故障的综合风险最低，而传感器故障可能导致较高的综合风险峰值，以及喷水灭火系统故障导致的平均综合风险较高。结果表明，所提出的模型可以为 UUT 电缆室的事故缓解、风险管理和安全屏障优化提供实用支持。