Road transportation is the main transportation mode for hazardous materials, and the risk of the transportation process is directly related to the safety of the people and environment around the routes. To accurately describe the risks in the road transportation of hazardous materials, a method for quantifying and characterizing the probabilistic risk is proposed in this study. Firstly, a route is segmented according to road characteristics which are taken as the quantitative basis of accident probability and consequences. Secondly, an optimal speed distribution of transportation vehicles is constructed, which is combined with statistical analysis to quantify the accident probability. Thirdly, the calculation grid is divided and the quantitative criteria are established with the transportation vehicle as the center, and the corresponding methods are employed to calculate the damage to buildings and people respectively. Finally, based on setting a road transportation scenario, risk quantification along a selected route is carried out. Accident probability and consequences are obtained to reveal the risks in different locations of the transportation route. This study can provide support for formulating risk-reduction strategies, planning road transportation routes, and allocating rescue resources.

中文翻译：

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爆炸事故下危险品公路运输路线概率风险分析与表征

道路运输是危险物品的主要运输方式，运输过程的风险直接关系到沿线人员和环境的安全。为了准确描述危险物品道路运输中的风险，本研究提出了一种量化和表征概率风险的方法。首先根据道路特征对路线进行分段，作为事故概率和后果的量化依据。其次，构建交通车辆最优速度分布，并结合统计分析量化事故概率。再次，划分计算网格，建立以交通车辆为中心的量化标准，并采用相应的方法分别计算对建筑物和人员的损害。最后，在设定道路运输场景的基础上，对选定路线沿线进行风险量化。获得事故概率和后果，揭示运输路线不同地点的风险。该研究可为制定降低风险策略、规划道路运输路线、分配救援资源提供支持。